综合防灾规划中多灾种风险评估技术研究*
Research on Multi-hazard Risk Assessment Technology in Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Planning
夏陈红
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 博士研究生
苏经宇
北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院 北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所 博士生导师，研究员
马东辉
北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院 北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所 博士，博士生导师，研究员
王 威（通信作者）
北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院 北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所 博士，硕士生导师，副研究员
摘要: 多灾种风险评估结果作为城市综合防灾空间和设施布局的现状基底，是编制和实施综合防灾规划的前提。为揭示多灾种之间存在的发生时间、影响程度、影响范围等耦合而呈现的复杂机制，明确区域多灾种综合风险评估中忽略的相互作用关系，解决多灾种风险评估结果对城市用地规划指导缺乏的问题，在系统研究多灾种综合风险评估问题、应对策略、数据可视化表达、相互作用机制的基础上，分析多灾种风险评估方法体系的构建策略及技术路径，以期为城市规划转型视角下综合防灾规划的编制提供技术支撑，实现城市空间的安全有序发展。
Abstract: The results of multi-hazard risk assessment, as the current basis of urban comprehensive disaster prevention space and facilities layout, are the premise for the preparation and implementation of comprehensive disaster prevention and control regulations. In order to reveal the complicated mechanism of the coupling of occurrence time, influence scope, and influence effect among multiple disasters, clarify the interaction relation neglected in comprehensive risk assessment of multiple disasters in the regional level, and solve the problem of lack of guidance for urban land use planning from multiple disasters comprehensive risk assessment results, this paper analyses the construction strategy and technical path of multiple disasters comprehensive risk assessment method system based on the systematic research on assessment problems, coping strategies, data visualization expression, and interaction mechanism, so as to provide technical support for the compilation of comprehensive disaster prevention planning from the perspective of urban planning transformation and to realize the safe and orderly development of urban space.
关键词：综合防灾规划；防灾减灾；多灾种风险；相关关系分析；综合评估
Keyword: comprehensive disaster prevention planning; disaster prevention and mitigation; multiple disasters and risks; correlation analysis; comprehensive evaluation
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
国家自然科学基金项目 “城市供水管网基于性态的抗震防灾规划设计与控制方法研究” 51678017
王志涛，王晓卓. 新形势下城市综合防灾规划转型的若干思考[J]. 城市与减灾，2019（6）：14-18.
WANG Zhitao, WANG Xiaozhuo. Some thoughts on transformation of urban comprehensive disaster prevention planning under the new situation[J]. Cities and Disaster Reduction, 2019(6): 14-18.
冯浩，张方，戴慎志. 综合防灾规划灾害风险评估方法体系研究[J]. 现代城市研究，2017（8）：93-98.
FENG Hao, ZHANG Fang, DAI Shenzhi. The research on the method system of risk assessment in multi-hazard mitigation plan[J]. Modern Urban Research, 2017(8): 93-98.
王江波，戴慎志，刘婷婷，等. 城市综合防灾规划编制中的关键问题探讨[J]. 城市规划，2017，41（4）：69-73.
WANG Jiangbo, DAI Shenzhi, LIU Tingting, et al. Research on the key problems in comprehensive urban disaster prevention planning[J]. City Planning Review, 2017, 41(4): 69-73.
新华社. 中共中央国务院关于建立国土空间规划体系并监督实施的若干意见[N]. 人民日报，2019-05-24（1）.
XinhuaNet. Several opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on establishing a land and space planning system and supervising its implementation[N]. People's Daily, 2019-05-24 (1).
MCBEAN G A. Introduction of a new international research program: integrated research on disaster risk-the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards[M]//Beer T. Geophysical Hazards. Dordrecht: Springer, 2009: 59-69.
明晓东，徐伟，刘宝印，等. 多灾种风险评估研究进展[J]. 灾害学，2013，28（1）：126-132，145.
MING Xiaodong, XU Wei, LIU Baoyin, et al. An overview of the progress on multi-risk assessment[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013, 28(1): 126-132, 145.
黄崇福，张俊香，刘静. 模糊信息优化处理技术应用简介[J]. 信息与控制，2004（1）：61-66.
HUANG Chongfu, ZHANG Junxiang, LIU Jing. Applications of fuzzy information optimization technology[J]. Information and Control, 2004(1): 61-66.
任鲁川. 区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展，1999（3）：31-35.
REN Luchuan. Research progress on regional natural disaster risk analysis[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 1999(3): 31-35.
卢颖，郭良杰，侯云玥，等. 多灾种耦合综合风险评估方法在城市用地规划中的应用[J].浙江大学学报（工学版），2015，49（3）：538-546.
LU Ying, GUO Liangjie, HOU Yunyue, et al. Application of multi-hazard coupling comprehensive risk assessment method in urban land use planning[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Science), 2015, 49(3): 538-546.
盖程程，翁文国，袁宏永. 基于GIS的多灾种耦合综合风险评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学），2011，51（5）：627-631.GAI Chengcheng, WENG Wenguo, YUAN Hongyong. GIS-based integrated risk assessment of multi-hazard coupling[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2011, 51(5): 627-631.
薛晔，陈报章，黄崇福，等. 多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型[J]. 地理科学进展，2012，31（3）：353-360.
XUE Ye, CHEN Baozhang, HUANG Chongfu, et al. Soft hierarchy model for comprehensive risk assessment of multiple disasters[J]. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(3): 353-360.
张孝奎. 防灾减灾视角下的城市空间布局规划研究——以唐山市为例[J]. 灾害学，2018，33（1）：89-95.
ZHANG Xiaokui. Study on urban spatial layout planning from the perspective of disaster prevention and reduction-taking Tangshan City as an example[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(1): 89-95.
编辑部. 国家重点研发计划“大都市区多灾种重大自然灾害风险综合防范关键技术研究与示范”项目启动[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术，2018，14（8）：22.
The Editorial Department. National key research and development plan "Research and Demonstration of Key Technologies for Comprehensive Prevention of Catastrophe and Major Natural Disaster Risks in Metropolitan Areas" project launched[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2018, 14(8): 22.
张靖岩，袁沙沙，韦雅云，等. 城镇要害系统综合防灾关键技术综述[J]. 工业建筑，2016，46（6）：1-4.
ZHANG Jingyan, YUAN Shasha, WEI Yayun, et al. Review on comprehensive disaster prevention key technology of urban vital system[J]. Industrial Construction, 2016, 46(6): 1-4.
中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部，国家市场监督管理总局. 城市综合防灾规划标准（GB/T51327-2018）[S]. 北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2018.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-rural Development of P. R. China, State Administration for Market Regulation. Standard for urban planning on comprehensive disaster resistance and prevention (GB/T 51327-2018)[S]. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 2018.
燕群，蒙吉军，康玉芳. 基于防灾规划的城市自然灾害风险分析与评估研究进展[J].地理与地理信息科学，2011，27（6）：78-83，95.
YAN Qun, MENG Jijun, KANG Yufang. Progress of urban natural disaster risk analysis and assessment based on urban disaster prevention plan[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2011, 27(6): 78-83, 95.
陈颖. 综合防灾视角下的城市灾害风险评估研究——以厦门市为例[C]//活力城乡美好人居——2019中国城市规划年会论文集. 北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2019：129-145.
CHEN Ying. Study on urban disaster risk assessment from the perspective of comprehensive disaster prevention-taking Xiamen City as an example[C]//Proceedings of Annual National Planning Conference. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 2019: 129-145.
代文倩. 城市综合灾害风险评估[D]. 唐山：华北理工大学，2019.
DAI Wenqian. Urban comprehensive disaster risk assessment[D]. Tangshan: North China University of Science and Technology, 2019.
KAPPES M S, KEILER M, ELVERFELDT K, et al. Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 64(2): 1925-1958.
尚志海. 基于人地关系的自然灾害风险形成机制分析[J]. 灾害学，2018，33（2）：5-9.
SHANG Zhihai. Natural disaster risk formation mechanism based on man-land relationship[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(2): 5-9.
李军，周成虎. 基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析[J]. 遥感学报，2003（2）：86-92，161.
LI Jun, ZHOU Chenghu. Analysis of grid size selection in landslide risk assessment based on grid GIS[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2003(2): 86-92, 161.
薛晔，刘耀龙，张涛涛. 耦合灾害风险的形成机理研究[J]. 自然灾害学报，2013，22（2）：44-50.
XUE Ye, LIU Yaolong, ZHANG Taotao. Research on formation mechanism of coupled disaster risk[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 44-50.
申思，张明媛，袁永博. 基于改进的风险矩阵法的生命线网络地震脆弱性分析[J]. 地震工程学报，2015，37（4）：963-968.
SHEN Si, ZHANG Mingyuan, YUAN Yongbo. Seismic vulnerability analysis of lifeline networks using improved risk matrix method[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal, 2015, 37(4): 963-968.
何汉平. 基于多因素耦合的井筒完整性风险评价[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术，2017，13（7）：168-172.
HE Hanping. Risk evaluation of wellbore integrity based on multi-factor coupling[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2017, 13(7): 168-172.
王威，夏陈红，马东辉，等. 耦合激励机制下多灾种综合风险评估方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报，2019，29（3）：161-167.
WANG Wei, XIA Chenhong, MA Donghui, et al. Multi-hazard comprehensive risk assessment based on coupling incentive mechanism[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(3): 161-167.
