北京文化创意产业发展的经济因素* ——基于大数据的观察

Economic Driving Forces for the Development of Creative Industries in Beijing: Based on the Observations from Big Data

刘晋媛
北京清华同衡规划设计研究院 总体规划研究中心 总规二所 所长，硕士

摘要: 从驱动文化创意产业发展的经济要素入手，探索性分析北京文化创意产业推动因素。采用国家《文化及相关产业分类（2012）》标准，利用量子数聚的全国工商注册企业数据，应用核密度分析、时序分析、事件分析等方法，探索分析企业数量、企业经营、企业注册的历时变化、空间变迁的经济驱动因素。研究表明，经济规模及风险融资体系是文化创意产业发展的基础，技术进步降低了文化创意产业的门槛和运营成本；停办工厂、城中村等交通相对方便、环境相对优越的地段因降低了文化创意产业的固定成本而成为原创艺术产业的首选地；空间集聚产生的知识溢出，形成的产业网络、人才网络、供给网络、营销网络和融资网络，推动了文化创意产业总体成本的下降；政策具有两面性，一方面促进某些产业快速发展，另一方面也对某些原创性产业产生挤出效应，同时政策是导致产业发展波动的主要因素之一。

Abstract: This paper tries to analyze what factors drive the change and growth of Beijing creative industries from economic mechanism. According to the standard of "Categories of Culture and its Related Industries" issued by National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China in 2012, using the methods of kernel density analysis, time series analysis and events analysis, we explore the economic driving forces of the changes of company numbers and their spatial transformation. Our study shows that the economy size and the system of venture capital investment and financing act as the base for the development of creative industries. Technical advances decrease the operating costs of creative industries. Abandoned factories and villages inside the city provide ideal places for original creative industries because of their low costs, good locations and environment. Spatial agglomeration results in the decrease of total costs due to its knowledge spillover, its networks of human, supplying, marketing and financing. Policy is a double-edged sword for creative industries. It will drive some industries while depressing others and it is one of the main forces to drive the fluctuation of development of creative industries.

关键词：文化创意产业、北京、经济因素、大数据

Keyword: Creative industries，Beijing，Economic driving forces，Big data

中图分类号：TU981

文献标识码: A

资金资助

国家社会科学基金项目 “基于城乡人口变化的中小学布局优化模型及政策路径研究” 14BGL149

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