情景分析对交通运输的积极和消极作用* ——从欧洲1970年代以来的发展预测2050年
The Didactical Function of Bright and Horror Scenarios, 1970-2050 Case Study: Scenarios for the European Transport Industry
Hans-Liudger Dienel
德国柏林工业大学教育学院 研究院长，教授 奈克瑟斯（Nexus）合作管理研究所 常务董事
Robin Kellermann
德国柏林工业大学 助理研究员
Massimo Moraglio
意大利托里诺大学城市规划史 博士 德国柏林科技大学 高级研究员，客座教授
摘要: 对未来不同的前景预期会产生不同的暗示和激励，即便预期的提出者并非有意为之。通过分析自20世纪60年代末期以来对欧洲交通规划及交通运输业的积极预期和消极预期，讨论了这些预期的作用机制。以预言的自我实现效果为视角，人们可以发现消极预期不知不觉地阻止了这种情况的发生。20世纪60至80年代欧洲运输业的例子分析证实了上述情况。对交通领域中历史上和现在的消极预期的广泛分析清楚地表明，这些预期如何预示了一条条“不宜前行（No-go）”的路径，而积极预期则确实促进了一些“大胆可行（Go-go）”的措施。当传播针对的是更广泛的受众而不是客户、利益相关者的时候，这种预期的影响作为一种政策工具就显得尤为突出。影响城市规划未来的前景设想应该混合使用“大胆可行”的主调和“不宜前行”的警示。有时候预期的社会传播效应会非常强烈，以至于损害预期的科学精确性。但是无论如何，这些预期的背景必须由预期的提出者和公众一起讨论。
Abstract: Scenarios have a didactical impact and motivation, even when it is not the aim of their authors. The article discusses these motivations and functions by analysing dark and bright scenarios for European transport planning and European transport industry since the late 1960s.With the perspective of the self-full filling prophecy effect, one can argue that dark scenarios implicitly lead to activities to avoid their realisation. The example of the European transport industry in the period 1960s-1980s – largely described in this essay - confirms the above. A broad analysis of historical and present dark scenarios in the field of transport clearly shows how they indicated “no-go” paths, while the “bright” scenarios did offer “go-go” perspectives. This didactic impact of scenarios as a policy instrument was especially strong when dissemination targeted a wider audience, beyond the client and the stakeholders. Influential scenarios for the future of urban planning should mix “Go Go”-Leitmotifs with “No Go” warnings. Sometimes the didactical intention is so strong that it harms the scientific rigidy of the scenario. In any case, the didactical background of scenarios have to be discussed both by the authors and the audience.
关键词：交通运输业、情景分析、欧盟
Keyword: European transport industry ， Scenarios analyse， European Union
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
资金资助
“欧洲联盟第七框架计划” “欧洲联盟第七框架计划”（FP7 / 2007—2013）的资助 314753
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