1980年代以来上海城市人口空间分布及其演变
The Distribution and its Evolution of Urban Population in Shanghai Metropolitan Since 1980s
刘贤腾
上海市城市规划设计研究院 发展研究中心 高级工程师，博士
摘要: 研究人在城市中的居住活动的空间分布及其演变特征，有助于科学理性规划城市。采用上海市第三、四、五、六等4次人口普查数
据，首先计算不同圈层的居住人口总量及其人口密度，并全过程地分析3个10年期的演变特征和趋势，发现在不同的城市空间层
次，人口变化存在明显差异：在1980—1990年间增长的人口主要分布在核心区，在1990—2010年间增长的人口主要集中在边缘区
和外围区，核心区的人口外迁而呈持续下降态势，在1990—2000年间边缘区人口增长快于外围区，但在2000—2010年间，外围区
的人口总量增长幅度快于边缘区。其后，针对持续扩大的中心城区的人口密度分布及其变化，采用负指数函数模拟其分布曲线，
发现在1990年代以来，体现距离衰减速率的参数b值持续在下降且速度较快，人口密度曲线持续趋于平缓，这潜在地说明居民克
服空间阻力的能力在增强。最后，对上海城市居住活动在过去30年间的集聚和扩散所表现的规律性及其内在机制进行了讨论。
Abstract: This research focuses on the spatial distribution of urban residents and its evolution features. First of all, it takes the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th
population census data of Shanghai to calculate the population of different spatial rings, and then analyzes how it has changed in the past three
decades. The result shows that population evolution features differ greatly in various spatial rings. Increased population of 1980s mainly lives in
the urban core of Shanghai. However, between 1990 and 2010 the increased population gathers in the outskirts areas and the periphery areas. The
outskirts areas gains population faster than the periphery areas in 1990s, yet the periphery areas gain population faster in 2000s. Secondly, this
research adopts Negative Exponential Function to simulate the distribution curve of the population density of extending built areas. It finds that
Parameter b, which reflects the ratio of distance decay, keeps descending rapidly since 1990, and the population density curve becomes more and
more flat. This presents that residents’ ability to overcome space resistance is enhancing in the dual process of urbanization and suburbanization.
At last, the regularity and internal mechanism of both residents’ concentration and dispersal in Shanghai in the past three decades are discussed.
It is believed that findings of this research could contribute to a more reasonable urban development plan.
关键词：人口密度，空间分布，演变，负指数函数模型，上海
Keyword: Population density、Spatial distribution、Evolution、Negative Exponential Function、Shanghai metropolitan
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
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