城市群交通碳排放的空间相关性与优化策略研究——以长三角城市群为例
Study on the Spatial Correlation and Optimization Strategies of Transportation Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomerations: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
嵇薪颖
上海市松江区规划和自然资源局 规划科 科员，硕士，2130126@tongji.edu.cn
摘要: 城市交通领域的碳排放比重高且增速快，是城市减碳的重要领域。立足城市群尺度，结合城市统计年鉴和多源空间数据，基于ArcGIS平台和Geoda软件，采用地理探测器和空间自相关模型，从城市土地利用、交通网络和交通能力3个维度选取一系列指标，分析其与城市交通碳排放的空间关联性。研究结果表明：城市建成环境中的建成区面积、道路面积、公共汽（电）车营运车辆数和出租汽车营运车数是影响交通碳排放的显著性因子。此外，城市空间密度、路网密度等因子与城市交通碳排放呈现高（低）值集聚的空间正相关分布特征，而城市公路里程与城市交通碳排放呈现出空间负相关的分布特征。最后，结合长三角地区交通和建设规划，提出城市群交通低碳化发展的相关空间优化策略。
Abstract: In the field of urban transportation, the carbon emission proportion is high and growing rapidly, making it a crucial area for urban decarbonization. This article focuses on the urban agglomeration scale, utilizing urban statistical yearbooks and multisource spatial data. Based on the ArcGIS platform and Geoda software, the study employs geographic detectors and spatial autocorrelation models. It selects a series of indicators from three dimensions: urban land use, transportation network, and transportation capacity, analyzing their spatial correlations with urban transportation carbon emissions. Research findings indicate that factors such as built-up area, road area, the number of public buses (electric) in operation, and the number of operating taxis significantly impact transportation carbon emissions in urban built environments. Additionally, the spatial density of the city and road network density exhibit spatial clustering characteristics positively correlated with high (low) values of urban transportation carbon emissions. In contrast, the urban road mileage shows a spatially negative correlation with urban transportation carbon emissions. Finally, combining the study with transportation and construction planning in the Yangtze River Delta region, this article proposes relevant spatial optimization strategies for the low-carbon development of urban agglomeration transportation.
关键词：空间相关性；交通碳排放；长三角城市群
Keyword: spatial correlation; transportation carbon emissions; the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
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