长三角城市群多部门碳排放的时空特征、影响要素与空间规划响应研究
Temporal and Spatial Dynamic Characteristics, Influencing Factors and Corresponding Planning Strategies of Carbon Emissions by Sectors in the Yangtze River Delta
刘 超
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 助理教授，博士 自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室 研究员
张洪博
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
黄雨嫣
同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
摘要: 从碳排放总量及工业、民用、交通、电力四部门排放量出发，可视化分析长三角城市群碳排放的时空特征，构建模型分析
其影响要素，并从国土空间规划的视角提出响应策略。首先，对1990—2021年长三角碳排放进行时空数据可视化；其次，
通过空间自相关分析碳排放空间协同性；再次，考虑国土空间规划分区，采用改进STIRPAT模型遴选出社会经济、建成
环境方面对总量、地均碳排放的显著影响因子及其弹性系数；最后，提出针对长三角地区碳减排的空间规划策略。结果
表明，碳排放以区域性中心城区为聚集，城市化水平、人口要素、人均财富等要素会促进区域碳排放。基于此，提出碳排
放分区划定、低碳产业引导、用地分类与格局优化等空间响应策略。
Abstract: In this paper, we visualize and analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta
urban agglomeration from the perspective of total carbon emissions and emissions from the industrial, civil, transportation,
and electric power sectors, construct a model to analyze influencing factors, and propose a response strategy from the perspective of territorial spatial planning. Firstly, the spatial and temporal data of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2021 are visualized. Secondly, the spatial pattern of carbon emissions is analyzed through spatial autocorrelation. Thirdly, taking into consideration of national spatial planning zones, the improved STIRPAT model is used
to select the factors and their elasticity coefficients of the socioeconomic and built-environmental factors that have significant
impacts on the total amount of carbon emissions and the average per capita carbon emissions. Finally, spatial planning strategies for reducing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region are proposed. The results show that carbon emissions are clustered in the regional central city, and urbanization level, population factor, per capita wealth, and other factors contribute to regional carbon emissions. Based on this, spatial response strategies are proposed, including delineation
of carbon emission zoning, guidance of low-carbon industries, and optimization of land use classification and pattern.
关键词：碳排放；STIRPAT模型；国土空间规划；时空特征；长三角
Keyword: carbon emission; STIRPAT Model; territorial spatial planning; temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics; Yangtze River Delta
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
中国 中国青年自然科学基金项目 52108060
上海市 上海市科技支撑双碳专项 22DZ1207800
上海市 上海市启明星人才项目 22QB1404900
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