乡村人居环境综合韧性指数构建及实证研究——以江苏省为例
Construction and Empirical Study of Comprehensive Resilience Index of Rural Human Settlements: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
郭 佳
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 硕士研究生
葛懿夫
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院 博士研究生
翟国方（通信作者）
南京大学建筑与城市规划学院教授 博士生导师
摘要: 基于韧性概念内涵与人居环境科学理论，确定了乡村人居环境系统韧性和灾害危险性的测度方法，提出综合韧性指数用以测度乡村人居环境韧性，并以江苏省为例开展研究。基于现有江苏省范围内自然灾害危险性的分析，选取地震、地质、洪水和台风作为主要灾害威胁，结合乡村人居环境韧性指标体系，测度2016年与2020年江苏省乡村人居环境综合韧性指数并开展空间相关性和泰尔指数（Theil index）分析。研究发现：（1）综合韧性指数整体呈上升趋势，5大系统中除了人类系统均有所提升；（2）江苏省人居环境综合韧性指数指数在空间上呈现出明显的集聚特征；（3）江苏省内综合韧性指数水平的区域差异明显，且苏南地区内部差异性显著大于苏中和苏北地区。从韧性与灾害危险性的综合视角，为乡村人居环境韧性研究提供新的研究思路和方向。
Abstract: Based on the concept of resilience and the scientific theory of human settlements, this study proposes the measurement method of hazard and the resilience index of human settlements system. We put forward a comprehensive resilience index to measure the resilience of rural human settlements, and carry out an empirical study with Jiangsu Province as an example. Based on the
analysis of existing natural disaster hazards in Jiangsu Province, four hazards are selected as the main disaster threats, namely, earthquake, geological disaster, flood and typhoon. We construct an index system to measure the comprehensive resilience index of rural human settlements in Jiangsu Province in 2016 and 2020. Furthermore, the Moran's Index and Theil index analysis are carried out to systematically discuss the evolution characteristics of the spatial pattern of rural human settlements resilience in Jiangsu Province. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive resilience index presents an overall upward trend, with all sub-systems increasing except for the human system; (2) The comprehensive index of human settlements resilience in Jiangsu Province presents a significant spatial clustering characteristic; (3) The regional difference in the level of the comprehensive index within the province is significant, and the variability within southern Jiangsu area is significantly larger than that in the central and northern Jiangsu areas. From the comprehensive perspective of resilience and hazards, this paper provides a new research idea and direction for the study of resilience in rural human settlements.
关键词：乡村人居环境；综合韧性指数；灾害危险性；空间自相关性分析
Keyword: rural human settlements; comprehensive resilience index; hazard; spatial autocorrelation analysis
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
日本学术振兴会项目 中国灾害情境下恐慌行为及其危害机制相关研究 18K03022
DOXIADIS C. Ekistics, the science of human settlements: ekistics starts with the premise that
human settlements are susceptible of systematic investigation[J]. Science, 1970, 170(3956): 393-404.
胡伟，冯长春，陈春. 农村人居环境优化系统研究[J]. 城市发展研究，2006（6）：11-17.
HU Wei, FENG Changchun, CHEN Chun. The study on system optimization of rural human settlements[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2006(6): 11-17.
李伯华，曾菊新. 基于农户空间行为变迁的乡村人居环境研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学，2009，25
（5）：84-88.
LI Bohua, ZENG Juxin. Research on rural human settlement environment based on the changes of the
householders' spatial behaviors[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2009, 25(5): 84-88.
郑小玉，刘彦随. 新时期中国“乡村病”的科学内涵、形成机制及调控策略[J]. 人文地理，2018，33
（2）：100-106.
ZHENG Xiaoyu, LIU Yansui. Connotation, formation mechanism and regulation strategies of rural disease in the new epoch in China[J]. Human Geography, 2018, 33(2): 100-106.
刘彦随. 中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴[J]. 地理学报，2018，73（4）：637-650.
LIU Yansui. Research on the urban-rural integration and rural revitalization in the new era in China[J].
Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(4): 637-650.
李伯华，曾菊新，胡娟. 乡村人居环境研究进展与展望[J]. 地理与地理信息科学，2008（5）：70-74.
LI Bohua, ZENG Juxin, HU Juan. Progress and prospects on the research of rural human settlement
environment[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2008(5): 70-74.
杨晴青，杨新军，高岩辉. 1980年以来黄土高原半干旱区乡村人居环境系统脆弱性时序演变——以
陕西省佳县为例[J]. 地理科学进展，2019，38（5）：756-771.
YANG Qingqing, YANG Xinjun, GAO Yanhui. Change in vulnerability of rural human settlement in
the semi-arid area of the Loess Plateau since 1980—a case study of Jiaxian County, Shanxi Province[J]. Progress in Geography, 2019, 38(5): 756-771.
朱彬，张小林，尹旭. 江苏省乡村人居环境质量评价及空间格局分析[J]. 经济地理，2015，35（3）：
138-144.
ZHU Bin, ZHANG Xiaolin, YIN Xu. Evaluation of rural human settlements quality and its spatial pattern in Jiangsu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(3): 138-144.
罗洁琼. 2000年以来江苏省人居环境演变研究[D]. 南京：南京大学，2018.
LUO Jieqiong. Evolution of human settlements in Jiangsu Province since 2000[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing
University, 2018.
冯越峰，赵少俐. 山东省乡村人居环境可持续发展水平评价及提升策略研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区
划，2021，42（8）：155-162.
FENG Yuefeng, ZHAO Shaoli. Study on the evaluation and promotion strategy of sustainable development level of rural human settlements in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of China Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2021, 42(8): 155-162.
DESOUZA K C, FLANERY T H. Designing, planning, and managing resilient cities: a conceptual
framework[J]. Cities, 2013, 35: 89-99.
赵瑞东，方创琳，刘海猛. 城市韧性研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展，2020，39（10）：1717-1731.
ZHAO Ruidong, FANG Chuanglin, LIU Haimeng. Progress and prospect of urban resilience research[J].
Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(10): 1717-1731.
MARU Y T, SMITH M S, SPARROW A, et al. A linked vulnerability and resilience framework
for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2014, 28: 337-350.
杨晴青，高岩辉，杨新军. 基于扎根理论的乡村人居环境系统脆弱性—恢复力整合研究——演化特
征、路径与理论模型[J]. 地理研究，2023，42（1）：209-227.
YANG Qingqing, GAO Yanhui, YANG Xinjun. Study on the integration of vulnerability and resilience of
rural human settlements system based on Grounded theory: evolutionary characteristics, paths and
theoretical model[J]. Geographical Research, 2023, 42(1): 209-227.
CUTTER S L, ASH K D, EMRICH C T. Urban-rural differences in disaster resilience[J]. Annals of the
American Association of Geographers, 2016, 106(6): 1236-1252.
CUTTER S L, ASH K D, EMRICH C T. The geographies of community disaster resilience[J].
Global Environmental Change, 2014, 29: 65-77.
KELLY C, FERRARA A, WILSON G A, et al. Community resilience and land degradation in forest
and shrubland socio-ecological systems: evidence from Gorgoglione, Basilicata, Italy[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015, 46: 11-20.
杨新军，石育中，王子侨. 道路建设对秦岭山区社会—生态系统的影响——一个社区恢复力的视角
[J]. 地理学报，2015，70（8）：1313-1326.
YANG Xinjun, SHI Yuzhong, WANG Ziqiao. Exploring the impacts of road construction on a local
social-ecological system in Qinling mountainous area: a resilience perspective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(8): 1313-1326.
程晓昀. 江苏省自然灾害社会易损性的时空格局研究[D]. 重庆：重庆师范大学，2011.
CHENG Xiaoyun. Research on spatial-temporal pattern of the social vulnerability to natural disaster in
Jiangsu Province[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing Normal University, 2011.
KUSUMASTUTI R D, HUSODO V Z A, SUARDI L, et al. Developing a resilience index towards natural
disasters in Indonesia[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2014, 10: 327-340.
王成，任梅菁，胡秋云，等. 乡村生产空间系统韧性的科学认知及其研究域[J]. 地理科学进展，2021，
40（1）：85-94.
WANG Cheng, REN Meijing, HU Qiuyun, et al. Rural production space system resilience and its research domains[J]. Progress in Geography, 2021, 40(1): 85-94.
代蕊莲. 乡村人居环境系统韧性的演变规律及驱动机制研究[D]. 重庆：西南大学，2022.
DAI Ruilian. Study on the evolution of the resilience of rural habitat system and its driving mechanisms[D]. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2022.
卢健松，刘雅平，魏春雨. 当代公共艺术与乡村人居环境的自组织发展[J]. 中外建筑，2012（10）：42-45.
LU Jiansong, LIU Yaping, WEI Chunyu. Selforganized development of contemporary public art and
rural human settlement environment[J]. Chinese and Overseas Architecture, 2012(10): 42-45.
吴良镛. 人居环境科学导论[M]. 北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2001.
WU Liangyong. Introdution to sciences of human settlements[M]. Beijing: China Architecture &
Building Press, 2001.
SIMPSON D M. Indicator issues and proposed framework for a Disaster Preparedness Index (DPi)[R].
2006.
ANELLI D, TAJANI F, RANIERI R. Urban resilience against natural disasters: mapping the risk with an
innovative indicators-based assessment approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 371: 133496.
郭小东，安群飞，王威. 基于韧性理论的老旧社区灾害风险评价及优化策略[C]//规划60年：成就与挑
战——2016中国城市规划年会论文集. 北京：中国建筑工业出版社，2016.
GUO Xiaodong, AN Qunfei, WANG Wei. Disaster risk assessment and optimization strategy of old
communities based on resilience theory[C]//60 Years of planning: success and challenge 2016 China Annual National Planning Conference proceedings. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 2016.
唐彦东，张青霞，于汐. 国外社区韧性评估维度和方法综述[J]. 灾害学，2023（1）：141-147.
TANG Yandong, ZHANG Qingxia, YU Xi. Review of foreign community resilience assessment dimensions and methods[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2023(1): 141-147.
朱明月. 江苏省主要气象灾害特征及风险评估研究[D]. 南京：南京大学，2013.
ZHU Mingyue. Study on main meteorological disasters and risk assessment in Jiangsu Province[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2013.
张丽，黄敬军，武健强，等. 江苏省地质灾害区划评价[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，2015，26（2）：
81-86.
ZHANG Li, HUANG Jingjun, WU Jianqiang, et al. Zonation of geological hazards in Jiangsu Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2015, 26(2): 81-86.
崔爱华. 江苏省地震灾害应急管理问题研究[D]. 南京：南京农业大学，2008.
CUI Aihua. Management research on seismic disaster emergency in Jiangsu Province[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing Agricultural University, 2008.
刘丽代，宏霞. 中国自然灾害保险风险度综合评判与区划[J]. 山地学报，2004（4）：477-482.
LIU Lidai, HONG Xia. The comprehensive assessment and regionalization of natural disaster insurance risk in China[J]. Mountain Research, 2004(4): 477-482.
杜鹃，何飞，史培军. 湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险评价[J]. 自然灾害学报，2006（6）：38-44.
DU Juan, HE Fei, SHI Peijun. Integrated flood risk assessment of Xiangjiang River Basin in China[J].
Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006(6): 38-44.
戴军，陈文君，申淑娟. 基于综合灾害风险评估的高原山区乡村聚落空间优化——以青海省海东市乐
都区为例[J]. 灾害学，2021，36（4）：119-125.
DAI Jun, CHEN Wenjun, SHEN Shujuan. Spatial optimization of rural settlements in Plateau Mountain
Area based on comprehensive disaster risk assessment: a case study in Ledu District, Haidong City in Qinghai
Province[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2021, 36(4): 119-125.
牛海燕，刘敏，陆敏，等. 中国沿海地区台风致灾因子危险性评估[J]. 华东师范大学学报（自然科学
版），2011（6）：20-25.
NIU Haiyan, LIU Min, LU Min, et al. Risk assessment of typhoon hazard factors in China coastal areas[J]. Journal of East China Normal University (Natural Science), 2011(6): 20-25.
王嘉君，何亚伯，杨琳，等. 基于GIS的山区村镇多灾种耦合风险评估[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报，
2018，29（1）：102-112.
WANG Jiajun, HE Yabo, YANG Lin, et al. Comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment of
villages and towns in mountain areas based on GIS[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and
Control, 2018, 29(1): 102-112.
王成，代蕊莲，陈静，等. 乡村人居环境系统韧性的演变规律及其提升路径——以国家城乡融合发
展试验区重庆西部片区为例[J]. 自然资源学报，2022，37（3）：645-661.
WANG Cheng, DAI Ruilian, CHEN Jing, et al. Research on the evolution law and promotion pathway
of rural human settlements system resilience: a case study of western Chongqing, a national pilot area for urban-rural integration[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022, 37(3): 645-661.
邹秀平. 基于韧性理论的乡村人居环境空间结构认知研究——以崇州市为例[D]. 成都：西南交通大
学，2020.
ZOU Xiuping. A cognitive study on the spatial structure of rural human settlements based on the
resiilence theory: a case study of Chongzhou City[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2020.
杨涛，陈海，刘迪，等. 黄土丘陵沟壑区乡村社区恢复力时空演变及影响因素研究——以陕西省米脂
县高渠乡为例[J]. 地理科学进展，2021，40（2）：245-256.
YANG Tao, CHEN Hai, LIU Di, et al. Spatiotemporal change of rural community resiience in loess hillygully region and influencing factors: a case study of Gaoqu Township in Mizhi County, Shannxi Province[J]. Progress in Geography, 2021, 40(2): 245-256.
彭鹏，顾丹丹，周国华. 湖南省乡村人居环境脆弱性格局变化及响应指数的影响机制[J]. 经济地理，
2022，42（6）：168-178.
PENG Peng, GU Dandan, ZHOU Guohua. Spatiotemporal pattern of rural human settlement
vulnerability and influencing mechanism of response index in Hunan Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2022, 42(6): 168-178.
杨忍，潘瑜鑫. 中国县域乡村脆弱性空间特征与形成机制及对策[J]. 地理学报，2021，76（6）：
1438-1454.
YANG Ren, PAN Yuxin. Spatial patterns, formation mechanism and coping strategies of rural vulnerability in China at the county level[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(6): 1438-1454.
马军旗，乐章. 乡村人居环境质量评价及其影响因素——基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查村居数据
[J]. 湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版），2020，21（4）：45-52.
MA Junqi, YUE Zhang. Quality evaluation of rural human settlements and its influencing factors: based on the rural settlement data in CLDS(2016)[J]. Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Science), 2020, 21(4): 45-52.
KAPPES M S, KEILER M, VON ELVERFELDT K, et al. Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a
review[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 64(2): 1925-1958.
