粤港澳大湾区高温灾害韧性评估与提升策略
High-Temperature Disaster Resilience Evaluation and Promotion in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
陈 天
天津大学建筑学院 教授，博士生导师 城市空间及城市设计研究所所长
刘君男
天津大学建筑学院 博士研究生
摘要: 全球气候变化导致极端高温事件频发，严重制约城市的健康安全与可持续发展。韧性概念是应对突发性与不确定性气候灾害的重要理论和策略，但在高温灾害领域鲜有涉及。以粤港澳大湾区为例，首先，构建包括“物理、自然、经济、制度、社会”5个维度、“灾前、灾时、灾后”3个阶段的高温灾害韧性概念框架与评估体系，为研究提供理论基础。其次，利用WRF、ArcGIS、层次分析法等对多源数据集进行时空模拟与运算，绘制准备性、抵抗性、恢复性、适应性与转化性以及高温灾害韧性等级区划图，识别大湾区高温灾害韧性的时空分异特征。最后，提出韧性提升策略，为大湾区及其他高温风险地区韧性研究与建设行动提供借鉴。
Abstract: Global climate change leads to frequent extreme heat events, which restrict cities' sustainable development. The concept of resilience is an important theory and strategy to deal with climate disasters, but it is rarely involved in the field of high-temperature disasters. Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example, this paper first constructs a conceptual framework and assessment system from three stages of pre-disaster, disaster time and post-disaster, which include physical, natural, economic, institutional and social dimensions. Secondly, maps of preparedness, resistance, recovery, adaptability and transformation, as well as high-temperature disaster resilience are drawn based on multi-source data sets using WRF, ArcGIS and AHP. Finally, the resilience improvement strategies are proposed to provide references for resilience research in the Greater Bay Area and other high-temperature risk areas.
关键词：高温灾害；WRF；韧性评估；粤港澳大湾区
Keyword: high-temperature disaster; WRF; resilience evaluation; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
中图分类号：TU984
文献标识码: A
资金资助
澳门科学技术发展基金项目 澳门填海造地高密度城市空间环境评价与优化研究 0039/2020/AFJ
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