气候变化背景下空间健康风险的评估方法及韧性规划应对*
Assessment Methods and Resilience Planning Response for Spatial Health Risks in the Context of Climate Change
冷 红
哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院 自然资源部寒地国土空间规划与生态保护修复重点实验室 教授，博士生导师
袁 青（通信作者）
哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院 自然资源部寒地国土空间规划与生态保护修复重点实验室 教授，博士生导师
李泓锐
哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院 自然资源部寒地国土空间规划与生态保护修复重点实验室 硕士研究生
摘要: 气候变化通过直接或间接途径增加了人类在生存空间中的健康风险，将气候变化引发健康风险的研究引入规划学科视野，科学评估公众面临的健康风险，并将评估与空间规划决策相融合是亟待重视的研究课题。在分析气候变化如何引发健康风险的基础上，结合国内外相关研究进展，构建致灾因子危险性评估、受灾体暴露性评估和受灾体脆弱性评估的气候变化空间健康风险评估框架和体系，分析比较现有定量评价的方法，提出将犹豫层次分析法和图层叠置法相结合进行空间健康风险量化评估。最后，结合当前空间规划的特点，从完善国土空间规划编制、传导机制和实施体系3方面提出相关韧性规划的应对建议。
Abstract: Climate change increases human health risks in living spaces through direct or indirect pathways. It is an urgent research issue to introduce the study of climate change-induced health risks into the planning discipline, to scientifically assess the health risks faced by the public, and to integrate the assessment with spatial planning decisions. Based on the analysis of how climate change triggers health risks, this paper combines the progress of related research at home and abroad, builds a framework and system for assessing the spatial health risks of climate change by assessing the risk of causative factors, the exposure of affected bodies and the vulnerability of affected bodies, analyzes and compares the existing quantitative evaluation methods, and proposes to combine the hesitant hierarchy analysis method and the layer superposition method for quantitative assessment of spatial health risks. Finally, taking into account the characteristics of current spatial planning, we propose relevant resilience planning responses from three aspects: improving the preparation of territorial spatial planning, transmission mechanism and implementation system.
关键词：气候变化；健康风险；风险评估；韧性应对；国土空间规划
Keyword: climate change; health risk; risk assessment; resilience response; territorial spatial planning
中图分类号：TU981
文献标识码: A
资金资助
国家自然科学基金项目 严寒地区基于居民心血管健康效应的城市空间影响机制及规划调控技术研究 51978192
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